Posts Tagged ‘lenders’

CMBS Poised for a Comeback

Wednesday, February 19th, 2014

CMBS was a $230 billion industry prior to the recession. Today, we live in an era of lowered expectations where every victory needs celebrating as we get back into gear. Take Chicago, where lenders originated and sold off $2.48 billion in loans on Chicago-area properties last year, more than double the $1.20 billion in 2012, according to Trepp LLC, a New York-based research firm. Nationally, CMBS lending rose 85 percent last year, to $82.23 billion. So, we are 35% of the way back. A big part of this rebound is that lenders have eased rates and LTVs. Last year, the average U.S. CMBS loan equaled 63.6 percent of the property’s value, up from 59.8 percent in 2007, according to Trepp.

Another signal of the rebounding bond market is that troubled loans have been getting worked out and traded. First, CWCapital Asset Management LLC put properties with $2.57 billion of unpaid loan balances up for sale. Now, Blackstone Group LP (BX), Starwood Capital Group LLC and CIM Group are all following suit. About 700 bidders registered interest in the auction, which includes foreclosed loans, according to Morgan Stanley. What’s happening is that special servicers, seeing the surge in property values, are unwinding holdings from the real-estate collapse. According to Green Street Advisors Inc., commercial property prices have rallied 71 percent from their 2009 low, surpassing 2007 highs in some areas.

Looking ahead, many experts predict that U.S. CMBS lending will top $100 billion this year. The Chicago area could surpass $3 billion in 2014.

Local Banks Facing Significant CRE Losses

Monday, June 15th, 2009

Toxic commercial real estate loans could create losses up to $100 billion for small and mid-size banks by the end of 2010 if the economy worsens.  According to a Wall Street Journal report – which applied the same criteria used by the federal government in its stress tests of 19 big banks — these institutions stand to lose up to $200 billion.  In that worst-case scenario, 600 small and mid-sized excedrin1banks could see their capital contract to levels that federal regulators consider troubling, possibly even surpassing revenues.  These losses would exceed home loan losses, which total approximately $49 billion.

The Journal, which based its analysis on data mined from banks’ filings with the Federal Reserve, are a grim reminder that the banking industry’s troubles are not confined to the 19 giants that have already completed the Treasury Department’s stress tests.  More than 8,000 lenders nationwide are feeling the dual impacts of the recession and commercial real estate slowdown.

The banks analyzed by the Journal include 940 bank-holding companies that filed financial statements with the Fed for the year ending December 31.  They range from large regional banks to mom-and-pop banks in small towns, as well as American-based subsidiaries of international banks.

Smaller banks are unlikely to appeal to bargain-hunting investors who are starting to recapitalize the industry’s giants.  As a result, these institutions must boost their capital by selling assets and making fewer loans – which could make the recession last even longer than anticipated.

Sovereign Wealth Funds Still Interested in U.S. Real Estate

Wednesday, May 13th, 2009

Sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) have been closely watching the credit crisis evolve, according to a Deloitte LLP report.  The good news is that they haven’t entirely lost their taste for American commercial real estate. water-academy-wokshop-dsc_0451

Consider that two of 2008’s highest profile transactions were the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority’s $800 million acquisition of the iconic Chrysler Building and the Kuwait Investment Authority’s $3.95 billion joint venture to acquire the General Motors Building and three additional office towers.

Deloitte notes that SWFs are breaking with their “traditionally conservative, passive investment practices” to pursue interests in partnerships and joint ventures with American real estate firms and investors.  “This shift to broader and more active investment relationships may require that SWFs pay greater attention to increased political, media and public scrutiny, as well as their need for greater operational transparency,” according to the report.

SWFs will stick to the playbook of acquiring trophy and other Class A assets.  It’s unlikely that SWFs will focus on non-performing loans since that would require extensive involvement in the American legal system of foreclosure/bankruptcy in order to protect their rights as lenders.  The relative strength of the dollar — to the extent it is an indicator of future strengthening of the U.S. economy ahead of other countries — could be considered a way to protect the risk of any further currency decline in the home currencies of the SWFs.