Posts Tagged ‘banking interest rates’

US Banks Resurgent

Monday, December 10th, 2012

Banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported income of $37.6 billion in the third quarter, a 6.6 percent improvement over third quarter, 2011. This is the 13th consecutive quarter that earnings have registered a year-over-year increase. The other big news —  the decline in the number of banks on the FDIC’s “Problem List” from 732 to 694. This is the first time in three years that there have been fewer than 700 banks on the list

For the economy, this means more liquidity as loan balances posted their fifth quarterly increase in the last six quarters, rising by $64.8 billion . Loans to commercial and industrial borrowers increased by $31.8 billion (2.2 percent), while residential mortgages rose by $14.5 billion (0.8 percent) and auto loans grew by $7.4 billion (2.4 percent). The bad news? The nerves around the fiscal cliff may have caused home equity lines of credit to decline by $12.9 billion (2.2 percent), and real estate construction and development loans fell by $6.9 billion (3.2 percent). Remember that $2 billion of property construction and design would be eliminated if sequestration happens, cutting 66,500 jobs.

Still, the FDIC report is cause for optimism. Only 12 insured institutions failed during the third quarter. This is the smallest number of failures in a quarter since the fourth quarter of 2008, when there were also 12. An additional seven banks have failed so far in the fourth quarter, bringing the year-to-date total to 50. Through December 4, 2011, there had been 90 failures year-to-date.

“More than 55 percent of all banks reported loan growth,” Chairman Gruenberg noted. “Small banks are also increasing their lending, including their loans to small businesses.”

The complete Quarterly Banking Profile is available both here and at on the FDIC Web site.

The LIBOR Problem

Tuesday, July 17th, 2012

People who don’t follow the capital markets on a continuing basis might be forgiven for thinking that LIBOR was the name of a fitness instructor from Norway. But no, it’s actually what a lot of people in the business world, including those of us in real estate, look to benchmark the interest rates that we pay for loans. LIBOR, or the London InterBank Offered Rate, is the rate that 18 international banks charge to lend each other money. It affects consumer debt, corporate debt and about $10 trillion in mortgage loans.  When you’re structuring a loan, for example, the originator may assign a rate of 2% over LIBOR. So, when the news broke that a group of banks was under investigation for rigging the rate, it sent shockwaves across both sides of the Atlantic and much of the financial world. On Monday, Chief Executive Officer Robert Diamond and Chief Operating Officer Jerry Del Missier, both of Barclays, Britain’s second-largest bank,  resigned over the scandal. Barclays agreed to pay a $450 million fine. In testimony to Parliament last week, Diamond apologized and said 14 Barclays traders were involved.

The scandal implies that thousands of loans may have been made on the basis of rates that we artificially inflated. One fear is that it may deepen the housing crisis. The rate-fixing scandal may have caused people to lose their homes to foreclosure, according to London’s Daily News. Moreover, many people have mortgages linked to LIBOR and fluctuations in its rate can affect the size of their monthly home loan repayments. The U.K. Serious Fraud Office joins the U.S. Department of Justice in criminally investigating how derivatives traders and rate submitters colluded to rig interbank offered rates. The U.K. Financial Services Authority is seeking civil penalties against banks.

The reaction stateside has been mixed: While condemning the malfeasance of some traders, Forbes says the scandal shouldn’t be quite the cause celebre it’s become.  “The allegation is that the traders within the bank would try and get those who reported rates to the BBA, and thus influenced Libor, to report false rates so that their trading books would benefit. This is clearly wrong, unethical, immoral and we’ll find out soon enough whether it is in fact criminal. What it isn’t though is a huge thing for the wider economy. Firstly, such manipulations would have been up or down depending upon where the specific book was on any one day: it did not lead to continual over or under statement of Libor. Secondly, the amounts by which it was moved, if it ever was, were pretty small, one of two basis points at most is the generally accepted number.”

Maybe the biggest question going forward is whether LIBOR will survive or whether a global benchmark built on manipulable opinions might be replaced by one based on actual reported trades.

Stay tuned.

June 2012: Jobs Fizzle

Monday, July 16th, 2012

80,000 was the number. 200,000 is what we need for this to feel like a recovery. And 8.2 is the number that keeps hanging on.  The nation’s unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.2% (that’s 13 million unemployed workers) for the second consecutive month, the Labor Department said Friday.  Businesses added just 84,000 jobs, while governments cut 4,000. Monthly job growth averaged 226,000 in the first quarter but slowed dramatically to an average 75,000 a month in the second quarter.

In response, the Dow Jones industrial average fell 124.20 points to close at 12,772.47, wiping out the Dow’s gain for the week, and Treasuries rose as investors moved their money into lower-risk assets. And the Presidential campaigns took the opportunity to issue a number of extrapolations and the usual host of inaccuracies and overreaches. The Democrats claimed that the unemployment rate has been trending down since hitting 10.10% in October 2009; what they forget to point out is that that’s because of the large numbers of discouraged workers – almost 1 million — who’ve stopped looking for jobs. The Republicans, on the other hand, said that the jobs report proves that the Obama administration’s policies haven’t worked, forgetting that the US was hemorrhaging 700,000 jobs a month when Obama took office. According to Politifact, Obama’s record is 22 consecutive months of private-sector job growth, beginning in Feb. 2010, during which the number of jobs grew by almost 3.16 million, or about 143,000 per month.

Putting the candidates aside, the reasons for the anemic job numbers have started to sound like a bad drinking-game song being played by the pundits as they make the circuit of the talk shows: The warm weather drew construction and manufacturing activity into January and February, but dampened spring hiring; the manufacturing sector contracted for the first time in three years in June;  retail sales were weak, Corporate profits fell in the first quarter of 2012,  the first decline since 2008, according to the Commerce Department; the European Central Bank cut interest rates – a sign of nervousness about their prospects; the end-of-year fiscal cliff sent ripples through the public and private sectors with its specter of higher taxes and reduced government spending; a lame-duck Congress couldn’t pass a Jobs Bill; Republican governors made draconian cuts and instituted public-worker layoffs at the state level; and the Administration didn’t put a big enough stimulus in place which is creating an undertow. Take your pick.

So, are there any bright spots? A few.  Friday’s report showed ticks upward in average hourly earnings (to $23.50, from $23.44 in May) and the length of the typical private sector workweek (34.5 hours, from 34.4). Also, a curious fact is that the number of teens in the workforce spiked by 140,000 to 4,528,000, or 3.2% of the entire U.S. workforce:  So why are teens making out so well in this first month of summer while everyone else, well, isn’t? The Daily Kos reports from 5 May 2012:  President Obama’s Jobs program, which is lining up commitments from the private sector and from government to create summer jobs and internships for young people, has announced commitments for 90,000 paying jobs, up from the 70,000 previously announced in January.