Posts Tagged ‘Autos’

Companies Are Stocking Up on Durable Goods

Wednesday, November 30th, 2011

American companies ordered more heavy machinery, computers and other long-lasting manufactured goods in September, an encouraging sign for the shaky economy.  The increase in demand for these durable goods suggests businesses are staying with investment plans, despite slow growth and a lack of consumer confidence.

Durable goods are products expected to last a minimum of three years.  Core capital goods are products that have nothing to do with defense or aircraft.  The gains are driven by tax breaks given to businesses for investments made this year, an incentive Congress approved last December to boost the lethargic economy.

“Demand for big ticket items seems to be alive and well,” said John Ryding, an analyst at RDQ Economics.  “Outside of the volatile transportation sector, the gains in durable orders were broad based in September, and point to a manufacturing sector that continues to expand at a solid rate.”

“Despite the understandable concern about economic growth, businesses are still investing,” said Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Robust demand for core capital goods is a strategic reason why economists expect an annual growth rate of 2.4 percent in the 3rd quarter.  That would be a major improvement from the first six months of the year, when the economy expanded at just 0.9 percent, the worst growth since the recession ended more than two years ago.  A 2.4 percent growth rate could ease fears that the economy is on the verge of sliding back into a recession.  Even so, the growth rate needs to nearly double to make a substantial dent in the unemployment rate, which remained stuck at 9.1 percent in September for the third consecutive month.

“Manufacturing is in pretty decent shape, and this ends the quarter on a high note,” said Brian Jones, a senior U.S. economist at Societe Generale, who accurately forecast demand for non-transportation equipment.  “We’ve got decent momentum going into the 4th quarter.”  Orders for computers and related products jumped as much as six percent.  A Commerce Department report is projected to show the world’s largest economy grew at a 2.5 percent annual pace in the 3rd quarter, an increase of the 1.3 percent rate in the previous three months.  Societe Generale’s Jones said the gain in durable goods demand has the potential to bring GDP growth for last quarter closer to three percent.

Boeing, the largest American aircraft maker, received 59 airplane orders in September, compared with 127 the preceding month.  September’s decline came on the heels of a 25 percent gain in August.  Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft jumped 17 percent at an annualized rate compared with an 11 percent increase in the previous three months, an indication that business investment is picking up.

Additional indicators show that manufacturing, which accounts for approximately 12 percent of the economy, continues to grow.  The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose a full point to 51.6 in September, compared with 50.6 in August.  A level greater than 50 indicates that expansion is taking place.  Industrial production advanced in September on demand for items such as cars and computers, according to the Federal Reserve.

According to Mike Shea, Managing Partner and Trader at Direct Access Partners LLC, “The number wasn’t bad, and having a decent number in durables is far better than having a bad number, since with the overhang of Europe, if we were getting lousy data here, then we wouldn’t have anything to hang our hats on.  If not for what was going on in Europe, this market would be running on all cylinders.  The summit in Europe is the tradable event.  We could have one hundred percent earnings positive surprises today, we could have great economic data come out, all of that could come in rosy domestically, but if the news out of Europe is judged to be bad, none of what happens in the U.S. will matter.  This market will not shrug off a lousy plan coming out of Europe.  It will not shrug off any plan that is not fundamentally based in reality.”

Companies Are Stocking Up on Durable Goods

Wednesday, November 2nd, 2011

American companies ordered more heavy machinery, computers and other long-lasting manufactured goods in September, an encouraging sign for the shaky economy.  The increase in demand for these durable goods suggests businesses are staying with investment plans, despite slow growth and a lack of consumer confidence.

Durable goods are products expected to last a minimum of three years.  Core capital goods are products that have nothing to do with defense or aircraft.  The gains are driven by tax breaks given to businesses for investments made this year, an incentive Congress approved last December to boost the lethargic economy.

“Demand for big ticket items seems to be alive and well,” said John Ryding, an analyst at RDQ Economics.  “Outside of the volatile transportation sector, the gains in durable orders were broad based in September, and point to a manufacturing sector that continues to expand at a solid rate.”

“Despite the understandable concern about economic growth, businesses are still investing,” said Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Robust demand for core capital goods is a strategic reason why economists expect an annual growth rate of 2.4 percent in the 3rd quarter.  That would be a major improvement from the first six months of the year, when the economy expanded at just 0.9 percent, the worst growth since the recession ended more than two years ago.  A 2.4 percent growth rate could ease fears that the economy is on the verge of sliding back into a recession.  Even so, the growth rate needs to nearly double to make a substantial dent in the unemployment rate, which remained stuck at 9.1 percent in September for the third consecutive month.

“Manufacturing is in pretty decent shape, and this ends the quarter on a high note,” said Brian Jones, a senior U.S. economist at Societe Generale, who accurately forecast demand for non-transportation equipment.  “We’ve got decent momentum going into the 4th quarter.”  Orders for computers and related products jumped as much as six percent.  A Commerce Department report is projected to show the world’s largest economy grew at a 2.5 percent annual pace in the 3rd quarter, an increase of the 1.3 percent rate in the previous three months.  Societe Generale’s Jones said the gain in durable goods demand has the potential to bring GDP growth for last quarter closer to three percent.

Boeing, the largest American aircraft maker, received 59 airplane orders in September, compared with 127 the preceding month.  September’s decline came on the heels of a 25 percent gain in August.  Orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft jumped 17 percent at an annualized rate compared with an 11 percent increase in the previous three months, an indication that business investment is picking up.

Additional indicators show that manufacturing, which accounts for approximately 12 percent of the economy, continues to grow.  The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index rose a full point to 51.6 in September, compared with 50.6 in August.  A level greater than 50 indicates that expansion is taking place.  Industrial production advanced in September on demand for items such as cars and computers, according to the Federal Reserve.

According to Mike Shea, Managing Partner and Trader at Direct Access Partners LLC, “The number wasn’t bad, and having a decent number in durables is far better than having a bad number, since with the overhang of Europe, if we were getting lousy data here, then we wouldn’t have anything to hang our hats on.  If not for what was going on in Europe, this market would be running on all cylinders.  The summit in Europe is the tradable event.  We could have one hundred percent earnings positive surprises today, we could have great economic data come out, all of that could come in rosy domestically, but if the news out of Europe is judged to be bad, none of what happens in the U.S. will matter.  This market will not shrug off a lousy plan coming out of Europe.  It will not shrug off any plan that is not fundamentally based in reality.”

North Dakota’s Booming Economy Grew 7.1 percent in 2010

Wednesday, July 13th, 2011

Guess which state’s economy grew at a significantly faster pace than the nation’s measly 2.9 percent?  According to a report from the Department of Commerce, it’s North Dakota, whose economy expanded a robust 7.1 percent in 2010.The key driver behind both North Dakota’s success is drilling for oil.  Historically, North Dakota’s mining sector — which includes oil — was quite small compared to its overall economy.  That has undergone change in recent years due to new technology that makes it possible to tap billions of barrels of oil in a remote area of North Dakota known as Bakken. American oil demand was relatively flat last year — but that made no difference in North Dakota.  Mining surged 59 percent, primarily because businesses were working to build the infrastructure to support this young industry in the Bakken region.  “North Dakota has a lot of untapped shale oil, and developing that field may have attracted a lot of investment and a lot of employment into the state,” said Luke Popovich, a spokesman for the National Mining Association.

By 2015, the new fields could yield as much as two million barrels of oil a day — more than the entire Gulf of Mexico produces now.  This new drilling is expected to raise American production by a minimum of 20 percent over the next five years.  Within 10 years, it could reduce oil imports by more than half.  “That’s a significant contribution to energy security,” said Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Credit Suisse.

Among the other states, one of the prevailing themes impacting growth is the ongoing housing slump – which was most evident in Nevada and Arizona.  Several states — including Indiana, Massachusetts and Oregon — saw a manufacturing comeback for autos, high-tech equipment and machinery.

The states seeing the greatest growth in 2010 after North Dakota include New York at 5.1 percent; Indiana at 4.6 percent; Massachusetts at 4.2 percent; and West Virginia at 4.0 percent.

Wyoming was the loser with its $34 million GDP falling 0.3 percent in 2010. It’s because the majority of Wyoming’s coal is used to generate electricity — and when demand for energy declined. last year, it was a setback for Wyoming’s mining industry.  With the energy sector rebounding and coal prices soaring, Wyoming is likely to fare better in 2011. Wyoming performed very differently from North Dakota in 2010.  Mining is a well established segment of the economy, accounting for approximately one third of the entire state’s GDP.  When energy demand fell and oil prices barely picked up in 2010, Wyoming’s GDP was badly hurt.  “When the economy is just flat or just limping along, you can expect a state like Wyoming to really take it hard,” Popovich said.

After Wyoming, the slowest growing states are Nevada at -0.2 percent; Arizona at 0.7 percent; Oklahoma at 0.7 percent; and Montana at 1.1 percent.  States like Delaware, which rely heavily on manufacturing of soft goods such as plastic, struggled due to weak consumer demand and competition from producers overseas.

“It’s only been fleshed out over the last 12 months just how consequential this can be,” said Mark Papa, chief executive of EOG Resources, the first company to use horizontal drilling to tap shale oil.  “And there will be several additional plays that will come about in the next 12 to 18 months. We’re not done yet.”